Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.058416 0.066270 0.074380 0.083350 0.092964 0.102931 0.114015
2025-04-27 0.043968 0.055253 0.067606 0.081989 0.098135 0.115574 0.135705
2025-05-04 0.037018 0.050536 0.066026 0.084756 0.106479 0.130593 0.159107
2025-05-11 0.030295 0.044858 0.062285 0.084094 0.110113 0.139673 0.175320
2025-05-18 0.026497 0.042092 0.061450 0.086354 0.116729 0.151848 0.194821
2025-05-25 0.023207 0.039488 0.060412 0.088025 0.122373 0.162698 0.212660
2025-06-01 0.018965 0.035046 0.056572 0.085801 0.122949 0.167280 0.222930
2025-06-08 0.015493 0.031210 0.053135 0.083745 0.123446 0.171544 0.232644
2025-06-15 0.013902 0.029932 0.052997 0.085851 0.129076 0.181994 0.249767
2025-06-22 0.012184 0.028227 0.052089 0.086798 0.133136 0.190462 0.264474
2025-06-29 0.011481 0.028066 0.053331 0.090620 0.140901 0.203550 0.284874
2025-07-06 0.009998 0.026395 0.052221 0.091101 0.144234 0.211059 0.298421
2025-07-13 0.009787 0.027059 0.054799 0.097039 0.155200 0.228732 0.325239
2025-07-20 0.007828 0.024268 0.051945 0.095221 0.155847 0.233408 0.336102
2025-07-27 0.007088 0.023683 0.052467 0.098209 0.162955 0.246366 0.357374
2025-08-03 0.005773 0.021680 0.050532 0.097476 0.164911 0.252644 0.370245
2025-08-10 0.005154 0.021049 0.050790 0.099951 0.171258 0.264625 0.390355
2025-08-17 0.004512 0.020235 0.050655 0.101781 0.176684 0.275403 0.408966
2025-08-24 0.003410 0.017998 0.047841 0.099346 0.175998 0.278050 0.417122
2025-08-31 0.002525 0.016006 0.045252 0.097093 0.175443 0.280780 0.425320
2025-09-07 0.002219 0.015599 0.045557 0.099400 0.181414 0.292222 0.444792
2025-09-14 0.001839 0.014830 0.045100 0.100438 0.185533 0.301184 0.461078
2025-09-21 0.001750 0.015040 0.046563 0.104619 0.194260 0.316396 0.485554